Review. Progress in Reducing Emissions 2025
Simon Maxwell
The latest annual report on mitigation from the Climate Change Committee was published on 25 June. It is more positive than in some recent years – less strident, perhaps – but still emphasises how much there is to do if UK mitigation targets are to be met. The target is to reduce emissions by 68% over 1990 levels by 2030, en route to net zero by 2050. The CCC assessment is that 61% of the required reduction is covered by credible plans, with some risks, but that for 39%, there are either significant risks, or insufficient or unquantified plans. Despite the shortfall, the CCC’s conclusion is that ‘(the) target is within reach, provided the Government stays the course’.
Two key areas are especially relevant to Brighton and Hove, viz the roll-out of heat pumps and of electric vehicles. The findings on aviation are also important for a City which has significant economic engagement with Gatwick. And the report clearly points to the importance of tackling consumption emissions, outside the formal scope of the CCC, but another big issue in Brighton and Hove.
Electrification is key to reaching the national target, and the CCC has as its first recommendation making electricity cheaper. On this, see the review of the Government’s Clean Power 2030 Action Plan by Rebecca Tekleyesus for Climate:Change.
Operationally, the CCC calls for rapid take-up of electric cars and vans. They posit an innovation S-Curve, in which the electric share of new cars roughly doubles every two years before levelling out, from about 20% in 2024. A similar or higher growth rate is needed for heat pumps, also doubling every two years, but from a low base: currently, only 1% of homes have a heat pump. The price of electricity is relevant to both these areas. The CCC says that ‘the ratio of electricity to gas prices remains significantly off track. This is crucial for heat, as well as cross-economy, electrification’.
On aviation, emissions are a growing problem, in absolute terms and also relatively, as emissions in other sectors fall. Sustainable fuel options remain limited. The CCC notes a 16% increase in aviation emissions in 2022-23, and a further 9% increase in 2023-24, both associated with a post-Covid rebound. It says that
’the most significant driver of aviation emissions since 1990 has been rising demand for international flights, particularly leisure. Aviation emissions now contribute a greater share to the UK emissions total than the electricity supply sector . . . This stands in stark contrast to the situation in 1990, when aviation emissions were ten times lower than emissions from electricity, and close to half their current level.’
There is lots more in the report, including on electrification of industry, and emissions in agriculture. There is also material on tree planting and peat restoration. There are useful graphics. Interestingly, there is little on insulation and the retrofit of existing homes; the word ’insulation’ does not appear in the Report, though Warm Homes and EPC standards are mentioned.
To focus on areas of immediate relevance to Brighton and Hove, one question is whether the City’s own plans are consistent with the targets envisaged by the CCC. Another question, not covered in detail here, but to be taken up in sector work, is how well national policy facilitates the aspirations of Brighton and Hove.
(a) Heat Pumps
The number of heat pumps is growing nationally, from a low base, as noted, supported by various incentive and subsidy schemes (Figure 1) – but needs, says the CCC, to grow faster. 98,000 heat pumps were installed in 2024, of which 73,000 were in existing homes. The market share remains low, however: the CCC says that
‘the UK’s heat pump market share remains low at around 4%, significantly behind comparable countries such as Ireland (30%) and the Netherlands (31%). (Furthermore), only 13% of new builds completed in 2024 have a heat pump (and) while some of the rest are being constructed with other forms of electric heating, 71% have a fossil fuel boiler’.
Figure 1
Heat pump installations by scheme
There is no discussion in the Report of Community Energy, including neighbourhood schemes.
The ratio of electricity to gas prices is a major obstacle to adoption. The CCC says that ‘the electricity-to-gas price ratio remains too high to ensure the underlying cost-savings of heat pumps’ greater efficiency are captured by households.’
The Brighton and Hove Decarbonization Pathways Study covers both individual and communal heat pumps. It envisages growth as in Table 1, with over 27,000 new domestic heat pumps by 2030, and an additional 20,000 or so by 2035. The table envisages new domestic heat pumps being installed at the rate of 9,000 a year to the end of the decade; that is 175 week or nearly 40 every working day. That seems ambitious.
It will also be important to track renewable heating in new buildings. The CCC laments the delay in introducing the Future Homes and Buildings Standards.
Table 1
Source: https://www.brighton-hove.gov.uk/net-zero/brighton-hove-decarbonisation-pathways-report
(b) Electric Vehicles
The CCC does not exactly say in this Report how many electric cars and vans it expects by different dates in the future, but does say that there are currently 1.5 million electric cars on UK roads, with the number having doubled in the past two years. The innovation S-curve they offer (Figure 2) tracks emissions rather than the number of vehicles. There are many factors underlying the curve, including the number of vehicles on the road and their emissions intensity. However, extrapolating from 1.5 million, with a doubling every two years, implies 48 million electric cars by 2035, plus vans. This is more cars than there are currently in the UK, so it matters when growth begins to level off.
Figure 2
Historic and Projected Emissions Savings from Electric Cars
The Council’s new Transport Strategy quotes Government estimates of 25 million battery vehicles nationally by 2035, and suggests that by 2035, if not sooner, more than half of the vehicles in Brighton & Hove will be electric. The Council is developing an Electric Vehicle Charging Plan, including adding to the 525 charge points currently available. It will be interesting to see whether charging is a constraint on growth. Electric bikes are also a big part of the Brighton and Hove plan.
(c) Aviation
The CCC sounds the alarm about aviation emissions, as noted. It avoids taking side on the much-debated question of airport expansion, but does say:
‘Aviation emissions have risen quickly over the past two years . . . If this growth continues, it could pose a risk to meeting future targets. To mitigate this, the cost of decarbonising aviation and addressing non-CO2 effects should be reflected in the cost to fly. This will help manage growth in aviation demand in line with Net Zero and generate the revenues needed to pay for sustainable aviation fuel and engineered removals’.
The relevance of the aviation debate to Brighton and Hove relates to consumption emissions (see below), but also to the role of Gatwick in the economy of Brighton and Hove. According to a recent study, Gatwick was responsible for 3,432 jobs in the City in 2023, and contributed £246m to Gross Value Added (GVA) in the City. That is about 2% of employment in the City and 2.6% of GVA, of course a small share of Gatwick’s total economic footprint (£5.5 bn and 76,000 jobs).
What is the future role of aviation, and Gatwick in particular, in the economy of Brighton and Hove? The Economic Strategy , published in November 2024, seems rather optimistic. It says
‘Brighton & Hove’s recent and historic success is underpinned by proximity to major international gateways to the city (Gatwick Airport, Shoreham and Newhaven Ports), delivering visitors, freight and investment. This will continue to be a foundation in the city’s evolution in a new UK economy.’
(d) Consumption emissions
Finally, one of the most interesting graphs in the CCC Report relates to imported emissions, and indirectly to consumption emissions. As Figure 3 shows, territorial and imported emissions are now roughly equal, at about 400 Million tons CO2e p.a.. Some territorial emissions are exported, so the two numbers cannot quite be added up, and it is important to note that territorial emissions have fallen in the last decade, at the same time as imported emissions have remained steady, suggesting that emissions have not simply been off-shored. Nevertheless, the UK’s overall consumption footprint has barely declined in the last decade, and is currently running at about 750 M tons CO2e p.a., with a growing share from imports (Figure 4). The latest figures are for 2022, reflecting post-Covid recovery; it will be interesting to see how they evolve.
Figure 3
Comparison of imported and territorial emissions
Source: https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Progress-in-reducing-emissions-2025-report-to-Parliament.pdf
Figure 4
Greenhouse gas emissions associated with UK consumption, 1996-2022 (MtCO2e)
For Brighton and Hove, the consumption emission figures are not available from official sources. However, if we take the national average figure of about 10 tons per capita, and compare with Brighton and Hove territorial emissions of about 2.9 tons per capita, we can see that territorial emissions only account for less than a third of our footprint; or to put this another way, consumption is thee and a half times territorial. This disparity is not surprising for a City with little industry, but shows why climate policy needs to focus on consumption as much as production: a recurrent theme of our work at Climate:Change.
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Simon Maxwell is Co-Chair of Climate:Change
Perspective pieces are the responsibility of the authors, and do not commit Climate:Change in any way.