Review and Opinion. The CCC’s Wake-Up Call - Why Adaptation, Including Drought Response, Can’t Wait

Nicky Lumb

The recent report from the Climate Change Committee (CCC), its annual report on adaptation, is a wake-up call. The message is clear: we are not prepared for the climate impacts already hitting our shores, let alone those to come. Despite years of warnings, progress on adaptation remains far too slow. In the face of record-breaking heat, the wettest 18 months on record, and now a rising risk of drought, this is not just disappointing - it is dangerous.

Why Prioritise Adaptation - Even Amid Social and Economic Pressures?

It is tempting, in an era of rising living costs and social strain, to see adaptation as an optional extra. But this would be a grave mistake. As the CCC makes clear, adaptation is not a luxury - it is a necessity, fundamental to our economic security, public health, and the protection of our most vulnerable residents. As the CCC’s 2025 Progress Report puts it:

‘Adaptation is needed now to ensure that the UK is prepared for today’s extreme weather as well as the rapidly increasing severity of future risks. The costs of these impacts are already being felt, and the risks will continue to grow even if international targets to limit global warming are met. Action is needed now whilst we still have the opportunity to address these risks in a way that is both cost-effective and timely.’

Economic Sense

The economic rationale is unambiguous. The CCC warns that unchecked climate change could shrink UK economic output by up to 7% of GDP by 2050. The 2025 report is explicit: “productivity losses due to physical climate risks are minimised” only when adaptation is mainstreamed across the public and private sectors - yet progress remains “insufficient.” The Stern Review (2006), cited by the CCC, is even starker: every pound spent on adaptation can save up to eight pounds in avoided future damages. The CCC is unequivocal: these are not future risks - they are present, and growing. Inaction is costly; investment in adaptation is not only prudent but essential.

Protecting Livelihoods

Flooding, drought, and extreme weather have already cost local families and businesses dearly. Water shortages threaten jobs, food security, and the visitor economy. The CCC documents that these impacts are not hypothetical - they are being felt now, and will intensify without urgent action.

Reducing Everyday Costs

Climate impacts are already driving up insurance, water, and food bills. The CCC is clear: “energy-efficient, well-adapted homes are cheaper to heat and healthier to live in, directly addressing fuel poverty and health inequalities.” Yet the goals of “buildings do not overheat” and “buildings are prepared for flooding” are still only partially achieved, underlining the need for more widespread adaptation to curb everyday costs and health risks.

Building Resilience and Opportunity
Adaptation is not just about defence - it is about opportunity. Projects such as rain gardens, flood defences, and water-saving schemes create local jobs, enhance public spaces, and make communities safer and more attractive. As the CCC notes, these interventions are essential for “creating local jobs and improving public spaces.”

Why the Orange Book Matters - And Why Traditional Cost-Benefit Analysis Falls Short

The Treasury’s Orange Book, long the gold standard for UK government risk management, sets out three vital principles:

• Dynamic, iterative risk management: Plans must be living documents, updated as risks and evidence evolve.

• Integration across all levels: Risk management cannot be siloed; it must be woven into every strand of decision-making, from the Cabinet table to the community board.

• Valuing non-market and long-term benefits: We must recognise the full value of avoided harm-including lives saved, health protected, and communities strengthened-not just what can be easily monetised.

In practical terms, the Orange Book says that

‘Options may involve one or more of the following:

• avoiding the risk, if feasible, by deciding not to start or continue with the activity that gives rise to the risk;

• taking or increasing the risk in order to pursue an opportunity;

• retaining the risk by informed decision;

• changing the likelihood, where possible;

• changing the consequences, including planning contingency activities;

• sharing the risk (e.g. through commercial contracts);

As Simon Maxwell points out, in a recent piece for Climate:Change, rising temperatures are likely to play havoc with the national risk register of every country. Adaptation needs to be assessed alongside other risks, like cybersecurity or vulnerabilities in energy systems. But cost-benefit analysis will move in favour of more spending on adaptation.

At the same time, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is often ill-suited to the climate adaptation challenge. By focusing on what is easy to price - and by heavily discounting future benefits - CBA systematically undervalues the true rewards of adaptation: the lives not lost, the health not harmed, the communities not fractured. As the CCC’s 2025 Progress Report underlines, robust adaptation policy demands that we move beyond narrow CBA. Only then can we fully capture the costs of inaction and the transformative benefits of acting now.

Brighton & Hove: On the Frontline of Climate Risk

Our city faces some of the highest climate risks in the country. Brighton & Hove ranks as the 8th highest flood risk area in England, with more than 30,000 residents and key businesses at risk. Storms have flooded homes and closed roads, while our shingle beaches - our main defence against the sea - are narrowing as sea levels rise.

Drought and water scarcity is a very real risk. March 2025 was among the driest on record in England, with significantly below-average rainfall and drier soils reported in the South East.  River flows and groundwater levels in the South East are below seasonal norms, with further declines forecast. Brighton & Hove relies on groundwater for ~70% of its supply, making it highly susceptible to short, intense droughts.

City centre areas, Hanover, and parts of Hove experience significant heat during heatwaves, with night-time temperatures elevated by 4–7°C due to the urban heat island effect.   Vulnerable groups (elderly, those with health conditions, dense housing residents) face heightened risks of heat stress and mortality. This aligns with the UK Health Security Agency’s 2024 warning of a significant rise in heat-related hospital admissions in South East England by 2030.

Local Adaptation Progress

Brighton & Hove demonstrates proactive, evidence-led adaptation planning, particularly in flood management and stakeholder collaboration.

1. Analytical Foundations

Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA): Identifies high temperatures, water scarcity, coastal/surface flooding, and erosion as urgent threats. The framework aligns with the UK Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) 2023 risk assessment methodology.

2. Infrastructure Interventions

Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS):

• Carden Avenue/Norton Road: £237,000 SuDS projects reduce flood risk and recharge groundwater (BHCC SuDS Evaluation, 2024).

• Wild Park Scheme: Ongoing £1.7m initiative since 2017 to manage surface water and enhance biodiversity (Environment Agency Case Study, 2023).

3. Coastal Protection:

• New rock armour revetments and sea walls operational since 2023.

• 2025 works include timber groynes and a 25m beach extension near King Alfred Leisure Centre (the Brighton Marina to River Adur Scheme)

4. Water Efficiency

• Southern Water and BHCC promote water-saving devices and leak reduction, targeting a 15% reduction in per capita consumption by 2030  - as part of the Greater Brighton Water Plan

5. Data-Driven Prioritisation

• CRVA and Urban Heat Island Assessment guide targeted tree planting, infrastructure upgrades, and drinking fountain placement in high-risk areas

Despite these successes, Andrew Coleman has emphasized, in a Briefing Paper on adaptation for Climate:Change, that accelerated implementation and addressing data gaps are critical to closing the resilience gap in water security and heat resilience.  The Briefing Paper focused on:

• Data Gaps: Risks to infrastructure, health and biodiversity require deeper local analysis.

• Governance: Recommends annual CRVA reviews and stronger oversight mechanisms.

• Implementation: Urges accelerated funding and delivery models for priority actions.

Coleman concludes that while Brighton & Hove is broadly on track in analysis and engagement, it must accelerate implementation and close data gaps to keep pace with escalating risks.

A Call to Action

The CCC’s report must be a turning point. The economic and social costs of inaction are mounting, and every credible analysis shows that investing in adaptation is the smart, responsible choice.

Brighton & Hove must:

                •             Set ambitious, measurable adaptation targets and publish annual progress reports so residents can hold leaders to account.

                •             Fast-track continued investment in resilient infrastructure: Build on our progress with SuDS, flood defences, and water-saving measures to protect homes, businesses, and vital services.

                •             Prioritise and protect the most vulnerable: Direct support to those at greatest risk from flooding, drought, heat, and rising living costs, ensuring adaptation is fair and inclusive.

                •             Mobilise the whole community: Empower neighbourhoods, businesses, and schools to develop local adaptation plans, drawing on Brighton & Hove’s tradition of civic participation and innovation.

                •             Secure sustainable funding: Leverage government grants, private investment, and community finance to deliver adaptation at the scale required.

                •             Embed Orange Book risk management: Ensure all major decisions reflect the full, long-term risks and benefits of adaptation.

This is not just about protecting our city from future storms, heatwaves, and droughts. It is about safeguarding jobs, homes, health, and the unique character of Brighton & Hove. Brighton & Hove can and should be a beacon of climate resilience for the UK and beyond.

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Nicky Lumb is Co-Chair of Climate:Change

Perspective pieces are the responsibility of the authors, and do not commit Climate:Change in any way.